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Orleanzieta

The PRC Replacing The International Leadership Held By The US

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Orleanzieta    1

So here's my excuse for starting a thread before I forget about it. Moreover, I feel like this should be accessable interregionally as such a topic may he of import for all of us on the Left the future. Though I may repost this to the RMB anyhow.

The international stage has been led solely by Liberal Capitalist American order since the height of the Perestroika crisis and the dissolution of the USSR. Now that the US has revelled in Neo-Colonial supremacy and rampant expenditure of military resources on questionable interventionist campaigns, it seems to be on a very steady decline. This decline has been marked not only by rampant interventionism, but also by the 2008 market recession along with a marked decrease in international economic output compared to past decades and in recent years, the increasingly distrustful relations between NATO signatories and with the 2016 election, a massive political soap drama around Russian meddling and a national Executive in disrepair. This also goes without mentioning the ever increasing social cynacism present in the American public concerning the competency of the government.

So with the old rules and it's guardians going to the door, the balance of power is slowly being rearranged. While Russia is emergent and still very powerful despite it's flaws, the one power that seems destined to fill the void is the People's Republic of China.

With it's foreign policy being a very "advance one step and hold firm" concerning regional relations, it seems it also seeks to expand internationally, as with the expansion of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and it's interest in investing military resources internationally (see: Djibouti base). With it's general economic capacity already outpacing that of the US and by current trends, would seem to keep increasing well into the next couple of decades, it seems inevitable that the PRC is destined to lead a new international order in the near future; Pax Americana as we know it will be replaced heart and soul.

This new order is obviously going to be very, very different. In it's ideals, it's methods, and in the case of the PRC's interests, it will be a very different set of rules to play by. Though interestingly enough it would sort of be a return to an old historical standard of straightforward diplomacy between well-established states, rather than the Cold War era and afterward where US diplomacy can change drastically every few years. This also brings forward our status as living representatives of the proletariat in how we may fit into this order.

We all have our opinions on the PRC as it is now. Whether we think it to be blantant State Capitalism, a Neo-Imperial model, or probably going through a certain planned economic phase, it is still at least on the surface, a one-party Marxist state. So despite it being a far cry from old Maoism and even general pre-war Communist theory, would we see a resurgence of Socialism on an international scale? China has never been shy of supporting revolutions, though never quite to the extent of the old Soviet Union, so can we see revolutions bloom without international capitalist interference? Or would China not be indifferent to revolutions at best and at worst, seek to defeat revolutionaries that do not seek Chinese favour? If many international revolutions do succeed, would China reaffirm it's old Maoistic tendencies and seek solidarity or would it be more interested in seeking potential client states, whether or not they be Socialist?

 

Here are some decent (lazy) enough sources for my claim. Not much I know, but it's late at night and I don't feel like doing extensive research. But please post your own sources as I would be happy to read and evaluate.

http://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2017/07/china-open-overseas-military-base-djibouti-170712135241977.html

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-aiib-and-the-one-belt-one-road/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative

http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/chinas-domestic-debate-on-global-governance/

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Ansynia    0

I think, and this is my cynical anarchist opinion and folks are free to disagree, that should the PRC usurp the United States as the only global superpower, it will lose any veneer of Marxism that it still has. I also believe that China has not actually had any semblance of Marxist theory since Deng, mostly because of the establishment of the SEZs in Shenzhen, Guangdong, etc. I completely understand that there are concessions that must be made within socialist societies in order to continue existing in the globalized capitalist economy, which is why I still fully support Rojava despite there being a rather large private sector, but I think that as China has set its sights on usurping the US, they have made more concessions than I think were really necessary. Most notably is the fact that they've entered the general smartphone market with brands like Oppo and AliBaba, and allowed capitalism to go around unfettered in the SEZs.

I also think that the more the PRC makes it a serious goal to usurp the US, the more their model of overseas aid will become neocolonialist. We already see this with the manner they run some of their military bases, infrastructure projects, and rare earth mineral extractions in Africa (Djibouti for sure, but also Ghana, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, CAR, Kenya are notable). Obviously it's not to the level that the US operates, and I don't think it could ever get to that point, but I think that if the PRC does usurp the US as the global superpower, it will get worse.

In addition, I don't think that if the PRC usurps the US that that is going to have a major effect on the revolutionary capability of the West. I think that if the PRC does meet every definition of a new superpower, the American state especially is going to grow far more repressive domestically than it already is (and it's already really bad). They're going to compensate for not having external power by clamping down on dissent internally, and I think it's likely that anti-Chinese sentiment is going to be stoked (especially if my predictions are wrong and China ends up going back towards Maoism). I think the European Union is going to do pretty much the same thing, and there's a decent chance that the fascist threat we face today is going to get a lot worse because I legitimately don't see how social democracy could make a comeback if the PRC makes moves. While obviously SocDem is not ideal, it's definitely preferred to neoliberalism and fascism (especially for myself and my friends since we're all poor and LGBT lol).

But besides all of that, I haven't addressed the question of "is the PRC capable of usurping the US?" Like I said, I'm a cynic, and I think that without completely losing its remnants of Marxism, that it would be impossible. The US has a strong ally in the European Union, arguably India, Japan, South Korea, etc. If push comes to shove, I think that without abandoning any Marxist lines the PRC still holds, they will not find many large allies. When I say "ally" though I don't mean militarily, I mean more in the sense of economic allies. There isn't an incentive for the EU to abandon the US because they flourish under American control; the only reason most of the US's economic allies would leave the US is if China offered them something better, which means heavy appeasement of capitalist interests. It really comes down to "Would we flourish under American leadership or Chinese leadership?" for these interests, and unless China abandons Marxism altogether, I just don't see that happening.

As for the international struggle, outside a Western context, I think it might become easier because of the destabilization period. I do not think that China itself would be conducive to real socialist revolution at this point in time, especially not the kind that I believe in. I think they would create a power vacuum where the noose around internationalist struggle is loosened, and until they can then come in and tighten it with their own capitalist entities (it cannot be refuted that they do have capitalist entities now), there is a likelihood that we might see an upsurge of socialist civil wars. I think that the situation would be similar to after the end of the Cold War, where the 1990-1992 period was uncertain for Eastern Bloc nations, but they ultimately fell under capitalist hegemony; but the difference here is that rather than immediately falling under Chinese hegemony, it's likely that China will not have the means to make that happen within a few years like the Americans did, and thus once those states destabilize because they're losing American funding and training, the struggle might boom instead.

Ultimately, even if nothing I said is actually true and they take over the hegemony in an entirely Maoist sense and struggle flourishes under them, I do still think that the PRC would have to become a target for any struggle to ultimately be successful because I am positive that taking over such a powerful position will corrupt any legitimately revolutionary leaders that still exist. As an anarchist I still do not trust the PRC, even if I trust it slightly more than the US, and I don't think we will be closer to communism if China takes the US's place as the superpower of the world.

That's just my take though, feel free to disagree.

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